Bitcoin Holders Dump $2.4B in 48 Hours: Is the Bottom Close?

The people who were supposed to never sell just sold. Bitcoin’s most dedicated long-term holders unloaded roughly $2.4 billion worth of BTC in just 48 hours, a move that analysts say has only ever appeared near the final stages of a bear market. The question rattling crypto markets right now is whether this is the last wave of pain before a recovery, or just the beginning of something worse.

The Sell-Off That Stunned Even Long-Time Bitcoin Watchers

Long-term holders, defined as those who have held their coins for at least 155 days or about five months, were largely inactive from February to April but have turned into sellers in recent weeks. Their sudden return as net sellers in early June, offloading $2.4 billion in just two days, sent immediate shockwaves through on-chain analytics desks. These are not traders reacting to a single red candle. When long-term holders capitulate, it historically signals that a bear market is entering its final, most painful phase. These wallets went dormant from February through April 2026, sitting on their positions while the market churned around them. That months-long silence made the sudden $2.4 billion liquidation all the more jarring. The moves coincide with a 12% week-to-date price decline from an October all-time high above $126,000, while spot ETF net assets have collapsed to $82.83 billion from $107.8 billion. Compounding the pressure, weak US jobs data, including a February revision showing a loss of roughly 92,000 positions, triggered institutional risk-management programs that accelerated selling across high-beta assets, with Bitcoin absorbing outsized outflows relative to equities. Then came the psychological blow. Strategy disclosed that it sold 32 BTC between May 26 and May 31 at an average price of approximately $77,135. The amount was small, but the signal hurt sentiment because markets treated it as a break from the long-term “never sell” narrative. What drove the June 2026 sell-off:

• Long-term holders shifting from dormancy to active selling after months of inactivity
• 26% of all Bitcoin sold over the past 30 days originating from investors who acquired coins above $90,000
• Weak US labor market data triggering broad institutional risk-off programs
• Bitcoin slipping below $70,000 for the first time since April 8
• Strategy shifting toward selling, especially following Michael Saylor’s comments about possibly selling to fund dividends

In the past two days they sold about $2.4 billion in Bitcoin, which Compass Point analyst Ed Engel said has “large implications on BTC’s supply and demand balances.”

On-Chain Data Reveals Just How Deep the Pain Goes

The LTH Spent Output Profit Ratio, which measures whether long-term holders are realizing gains or losses on spent coins, has moved into sub-1.0 territory, confirming that a meaningful share of this cohort is now selling at a loss. That is a rare and telling condition in Bitcoin market history. Research synthesizing Glassnode data estimates approximately 39 to 43% of the total Bitcoin supply is currently underwater, approaching the 50 to 55% zone that has historically marked final cycle lows across the January 2015, December 2018, and November 2022 bottoms. Current estimates place 11.1 million BTC in profit against 8.9 million BTC in loss, a gap that, in prior cycles, closed fully at the structural low before accumulation began.

“Top-buyer capitulation is a very common theme in late-cycle bear markets. This makes us more confident that BTC’s bear market is in late stages,” said Compass Point analyst Ed Engel.

CryptoQuant data shows that Bitcoin’s MVRV Adaptive Z-Score has fallen to negative 2.66. “The current Z-Score reading of negative 2.66 proves that Bitcoin remains persistently in the capitulation zone,” CryptoQuant contributor GugaOnChain said, adding that “the indicator suggests that we are approaching the historical accumulation phase.” Earlier this week, Bitcoin briefly fell to $61,556, bringing it into contact with the 200-week simple moving average, a technical indicator that has historically played a significant role during major market downturns. During previous bear markets, Bitcoin eventually found stability around this trendline before beginning longer-term recoveries. Fidelity’s cycle analysis notes that the current drawdown from the October peak registers at roughly 52%, materially shallower than the 77 to 85% declines seen in earlier bear markets, yet several deep-value on-chain metrics, including MVRV Z-Score and Long-Term Holder Supply in Loss, are simultaneously flashing readings that have historically appeared only at major bottoms.

Bitcoin ETFs Post 13 Straight Days of Outflows, a Record

The long-term holder sell-off did not happen in isolation. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded 13 consecutive days of net outflows from May 15 to June 3, the longest such streak since the products launched in early 2024. The funds shed $4.33 billion and 59,351 BTC over that span, according to Galaxy Research. The selling marks a sharp reversal from April, the funds’ strongest month of 2026, when inflows hit $1.97 billion. The pivot from record inflows to record outflows happened in a matter of weeks.

The selloff has been driven by a confluence of institutional outflows, forced liquidations, and deteriorating market sentiment, with the Crypto Fear and Greed Index plummeting to 12, placing it in Extreme Fear territory on June 3. The selling from long-term holders coincided with significant outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, with BlackRock’s IBIT alone shedding over $2.4 billion across a 10-day stretch. This trend has also been observed globally, with European crypto ETPs recording about $1.67 billion in outflows in the week of May 25 to 29, emphasizing a broader institutional reassessment of digital asset exposure. Citi analyst Alex Saunders noted that ETF flows are the primary driver of BTC price appreciation, explaining approximately 45% of weekly return variation, and the best vehicle for tracking investor adoption and appetite. That makes this 13-day streak one of the most consequential macro headwinds Bitcoin has faced all year.

Where Analysts Think the Bottom Is, and Why They Disagree

Compass Point analyst Ed Engel told CNBC: “This cohort of top-buyers had been resilient throughout the bear market; however, they’re finally capitulating as BTC approaches new cycle lows.” His reading is cautiously bullish. Top-buyer capitulation of this scale is a late-cycle signal, and it raises his confidence that the worst is nearly over. Scott Melker, host of The Wolf of All Streets, said the market is showing signals that have historically accompanied major lows, including an oversold weekly Relative Strength Index. He pointed to prior bottoms in 2015, 2018, and 2022. But not every analyst is ready to call the floor. Crypto analyst Tony Research said the “final capitulation on BTC is still ahead,” adding: “My take is, BTC will bottom at $40,000 to $50,000, most likely forming between mid-September and late November 2026.” Fellow analyst Titan of Crypto noted that previous bear cycles in 2018 and 2022 printed their lows 12 months after the bull market top. Bitcoin’s current all-time high was reached on October 2, 2025. “If this cycle follows the same rhythm, that puts the low around October,” the analyst added. CryptoQuant noted that historically, bear market bottoms have coincided with periods when long-term holders experience 30 to 40% loss margins. Long-term holder profits have declined from 142% in October to breakeven levels, but analysts say this remains far from true capitulation. There is one counterweight worth watching closely. Exchange reserves are reportedly near multi-year lows, which suggests that while these holders are selling, buyers on the other side are pulling coins off exchanges and into cold storage. That behavior pattern aligns with accumulation, not panic. As of early June 2026, prediction markets give 48% odds on Bitcoin reclaiming $100,000 by year-end. A market that is hurting, but not finished with its longer-term thesis. Bitcoin is in real pain right now, and the $2.4 billion sell-off from its most committed holders is the clearest signal of that. The on-chain patterns are aligning in ways analysts have not seen since the final lows of 2018 and 2022. Whether this marks the exact cycle bottom or just a painful stop before a deeper flush remains the central debate of the moment. But the holders who survived every prior storm finally broke this week, and in Bitcoin’s history, moments like that have always meant something. What do you think? Has Bitcoin hit its cycle bottom, or is there more pain still ahead? Drop your thoughts in the comments below.