Trump Election Win Doubts Grow, Yet Analysts Predict $200K Bitcoin Regardless

As the U.S. presidential election unfolds, concerns are rising about Donald Trump’s chances of victory, with analysts at Bernstein firmly forecasting that Bitcoin’s price could soar to $200,000 irrespective of the election outcome. This bullish outlook comes amid significant movements in the cryptocurrency market as institutional investors adjust their strategies in response to evolving political dynamics.

Institutional Outflows Signal Caution

In the lead-up to the election, U.S. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have experienced notable outflows, marking their second-largest withdrawal day on record. On November 4, just a day before voters headed to the polls, 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net withdrawals totaling $541.1 million. This trend may indicate that institutional investors are becoming wary of the implications of a potential Trump presidency, despite initial expectations that his administration would favor the crypto market.

The largest outflow occurred on May 1, when $563.7 million was withdrawn following a significant drop in Bitcoin’s price. CNBC’s Jim Cramer pointed out that Wall Street’s trading patterns suggest investors are increasingly confident that Vice President Kamala Harris could secure the presidency. This shift has led to a boost in industries likely to benefit from Harris’s proposed policies, particularly in light of a recent poll showing her leading Trump in Iowa, a state previously thought to be a lock for the former president.

Bernstein’s Bullish Bitcoin Projection

Despite the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s prospects, Bernstein has maintained a robust long-term outlook for Bitcoin. Analysts from the investment firm assert that the cryptocurrency is on track to hit $200,000 before 2026, a target they describe as “conservative.” While the market may experience fluctuations based on election outcomes, Bernstein emphasizes that Bitcoin’s fundamental value is not solely dependent on political factors.

The firm has outlined short-term projections that suggest Bitcoin could rise to between $80,000 and $90,000 if Trump wins. Conversely, a victory for Harris could see Bitcoin retreat to around $50,000. This reflects the market’s perception of Trump as the more pro-crypto candidate, while Harris’s stance has been characterized as relatively cautious regarding digital assets.

Broader Economic Narratives at Play

Rob Hadick, a General Partner at Dragonfly, echoed Bernstein’s sentiment, suggesting that while Trump’s lead in Polymarket has provided positive momentum for Bitcoin, it is not the only factor influencing market prices. “There’s a lot more going on,” he explained, citing a recent increase in liquidity and the resumption of quantitative easing as significant drivers of market sentiment.

Hadick believes that macroeconomic trends will play a crucial role in shaping Bitcoin’s future. While short-term volatility is expected, especially if Harris takes office, he remains optimistic about a “soft landing” for the U.S. economy, suggesting that fears of a recession may be abating.

As the election results continue to unfold, the cryptocurrency market remains poised for potential shifts. While doubts about a Trump victory may have surfaced, analysts maintain a bullish outlook on Bitcoin, anticipating a price of $200,000 within the next few years. Investors are advised to consider both short-term market fluctuations and long-term economic trends as they navigate the evolving landscape of digital assets.